November 4, 2025
Inconvenient Truths Ignored in Meat Institute’s Cattle Market Report
By: Brandon Reeves, Executive Director
It’s sale season in cattle country. As producers, we’ve all sat at an auction and listened to highlights of a
bull’s specific traits…occasionally featuring cherry-picked data meant to paint the bull in the best light.
Best weaning weight ratio in the sale! Never mind that his structural build might only last 1-2 breeding
seasons. The moral of the story being it is important to look at the whole picture before buying
someone else’s bull. And that doesn’t just mean for cattle.
The Meat Institute’s report The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets that was featured in the recent
Drovers article Unpacking the Beef: Report Clarifies Cattle Market Realities, Packer Challenges & Trade
Tensions unfortunately embodies the example above. There might be some attractive stats. But add
some context and things fall apart pretty quickly. Let’s take a look.
Record cattle prices. On page 1, the Meat Institute says that “(c)attle prices were at record levels for
most of 2023, surpassing the 2014-2015 previous record highs.” The problem with that comparison is
that it does not account for inflation. $240/cwt in 2014 is roughly $330/cwt in 2025 when inflation is
factored in. The CME Feeder Cattle Index did not even reach the $330/cwt level until the end of July this
year and most feeder cattle futures contracts are trading below that level now. Cattle producers have
felt the effects of inflation and increased production costs like everyone else. When inflation is taken
into account, we certainly did not experience record prices in 2023 or 2024 or in the first half of 2025.
And the real inconvenient truth is that packers actually still experienced reported spot margins of close
to $150/head in mid-summer and mid-September of this year despite elevated cattle prices. It is also
worth pointing out that estimates are just that, estimates, and do not portray actual bottom lines.
Share of the retail dollar. On page 4, the Meat Institute claims that “(t)he producers’ share of the retail
beef dollar was 55 percent in August 2025 and has averaged 54 percent so far in 2025.” Compared to
the percentages in the low 30’s we were getting during COVID, that might look pretty good. But looking
back, we have not even reached the percentage of retail value that we had during the highest month of
the 2014 cycle (58% in Nov. 2014 according to USDA data). And that number still pales in comparison to
the percentage of retail value that producers used to get in the 70’s, 80’s and early 90’s. Cattle
producers own the cattle for years, not days. And we incur costs every day. Correlation does not always
mean causation. But the USDA ERS chart below shows what happened between 1980 and 1995. The
inconvenient truth is the cattle producer’s share of retail value has never been the same.
PO Box 9
Daleville, VA 24083-0009
Office: 540-992-1009
Fax: 540-992-4632
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.vacattlemen.org